Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Wealth is just luck?

I was very surprised to read this article in MIT's Technology Review: If you're so smart, why aren't you rich?  Turns out it's just chance.

It's a report on a computer simulation done it Italy that purports to show that luck is more important than intelligence, social skills or talent in acquiring wealth.  The problem with computer "simulations" is that the biases are built into the algorithms at the outset.  As with statistics, you can manipulate your way to any result you wish.  The report is an attempt to put an academic gloss on the left-wing economics the "you didn't build that" crowd is always spouting.

I was thinking of doing an article on it, but I'm afraid it would be too political.  Perhaps I could include it as a "Dangerous Idea" in an article that includes a couple other odd notions? 

I've always understood the definition of "luck" to be when preparation meets opportunity.  I'm confident that the Italians did not define it that way, but as random chance.

1 comment:

JLM said...

Or as Branch Rickey put it, "Luck is the residue of design."