Will Trump be the Stock Market's New Hoover?

As the year winds down, stock investors apparently welcome the prospect of a Republican in the White House. If the Trump presidency brings bumper returns, it will defy the odds. As Cullen Roche illustrates, the stock market tends to do better –much better–under Democrat presidents. Since Herbert Hoover took office, stocks have returned an average of 1.7% annually under Republicans. Returns under Democrat presidents, 10.8%.

From The Washington Post comes this chart of stock performance.

Will the market continue to greet Trump as enthusiastically as it welcomed Herbert Hoover? There's no telling, but we probably shouldn't worry. As Roche concedes, "judging stock market performance by presidencies is silly."

Christmas Price Index 2016

PNC's long running whimsy, the annual index of what it costs to acquire the gifts named in The Twelve Days of Christmas, was virtually inflation free this year. Some prices dropped a bit, while earnings of drummers and pipers rose modestly.

The cost of twelve drummers drumming rose 2.8%

The Trustworthy Investment Manager's Twelve Days of Christmas

Poster by Xavier Romero-Frias, Wikimedia Commons

W. Scott Simon keyboarded The Twelve Days of Christmas of a Modern Prudent Fiduciary nine years ago. Then and now, there's more to investing like a true fiduciary than "putting the customer first."

Decline and Fall of the Fiduciary Standard

Efforts to impose a fiduciary standard on brokers handling 401(k) accounts have been losing ground. Proposed regulations have been so watered down that some brokerage firms figure they'll make more money, not less. With Republicans controlling the new Congress, even the emasculated fiduciary standard is likely to be deferred or discarded.

For a reminder of the high hopes motivating the standard's proponents in 2009, see Fiduciary Standards for Broker-Dealers.

Lies, Damn Lies and Politicians' Tax Talk, Continued

While campaigning, President-elect Trump promised massive income tax cuts. Now his choice to serve as treasury secretary says upper-income taxpayers will receive no "absolute tax cut."

As politicians know too well, nobody pays income tax on all their income. They pay on a "tax base," representing income less exemptions and deductions, and they may pay even less thanks to tax credits. If you remove or limit enough tax breaks to expand the tax base significantly, you can cut tax rates and still increase tax revenue.

Consequently, politicians find it easy to propose lower rates, even though their tax cuts are less, than, er, "absolute."

The good news for top-bracket taxpayers: Trump's proposed rate cuts, lowering the top rate to 33% and cutting the rate on business income to 15%, are so robust that no realistic increase in the tax base could deprive them of an unqualified, unconditional tax cut.

Earlier post: Lies, Damn Lies and Politicians' Tax Talk.

The Top 400 Club's Last Hurrah

Taxpayers needed almost $127 million in 2014 income to gain entry to the Top 400 Taxpayers Club, The Wall Street Journal reports.

That elite group received 1.3% of income in 2014, paid 2.13% of income taxes (at an average rate of 23.13%, the highest since 1997) and made 6.9% of all charitable contributions.

Typically, taxpayers gain membership in the club by selling a business or otherwise realizing a humongous capital gain. Relatively few retain their membership for a second year.

The IRS says it is disbanding the Top 400 Club. In future it will issue data on a slightly less exclusive group, the 1,500 or so taxpaying  households who constitute the top 0.001% of all taxpayers.