How does our national debt stack up?

 I ran across an interesting IMF dataset on the debts of central governments, which is timely considering the latest from Congress on our national debt.

In GDP terms, we have one of the highest national debts in the world, at 115% of our GDP (2021 data, could be higher by now).  Japan has an astonishing 212% debt ratio.  At the other end of the scale stands Norway with just 15.75%.  Germany has a more manageable 46%.  I'm uncertain that having a debt larger than the economy is sustainable.

Here's a short excerpt from the IMF's more complete table:

Country by country, national debt as a percentage of GDP

Canada	55.55%
Mexico	40.67%
Germany	46.27%
Italy	146.55%
United Kingdom	102.97%
Norway	15.75%
Japan	221.32%
India	54.27%
Australia	43.95%
United States	115.28%

A Timely Guide to Banking, and Why Banks Fail

Wealth meanagers and their clients couldn’t ask for a better pocket guide to banking than Bank Failures:  as American as Apple Pie, by veteran financial historian John Steele Gordon.  Although the article appears in the latest online issue of the once beloved American Heritage magazine, the closing section suggests Gordon may have written it in the wake of the S&L crisis. Even so, this quick, readable trip through financial history is timely. Especially this century-old quote from Walter Bagehot:

“Every banker knows that if he has to prove that he is worthy of credit, however good may be his arguments, in fact his credit is gone.” 

The January in April Mystery

This full-page ad keeps popping up in our local paper, and that’s downright odd for several reasons: 

1. Hardly anybody runs full-page newspaper ads these days. January’s stands out like a a sumo wrestler at a toddler's birthday party.

2. January Capital Advisors is based in San  Francisco and run by three broker/advisor/insurance agents. The company offers wrap programs and individually managed accounts. As of three years ago they managed about $161 million. Why are they seeking clients on the Atlantic seaboard?

3. In these volatile times, investment advisers brave enough to tell nervous wealth holders, “Don’t just do something, stand there!” have gained admiration. Number crunchers point out that active trading and market timing are good therapy but too often bad for wealthbuilding. According to its Form ADV, January seems to prefer high portfolio turnover, guided in part by technical analysis, with holding periods of a year or less. In other words, don’t stay the course.

4. January is awfully late to the party. This area, known for its relative affluence, is drastically overstocked with investment advisers and wealth planners. Hundreds and hundreds! Maybe thousands.

How Siri Became Apple’s Bad Apple

Twelve years ago I fell in love with Siri, the virtual-assistant app that Apple had just added to the iPhone. Secretary 3.0, I called her. My feelings were widely shared. David Pogue gave her a rave review. Siri, Steve Rohr wrote in The New York Times, "represents the future of Apple as a business.”

Sure glad he was wrong about that!

Unlike like the smart young secretary who typed her way up, Siri never evolved. Now she’s a middle-aged drudge. Her cousins, Alexa and Google Assistant, aren't much better. (To be fair, Alexa will tell me the time of the next high tide when I ask her. Siri diffidently offers me a tide chart and expects me to figure it out myself.) 

Clunky coding (perhaps dating back to a Pentagon project in Siri’s case) and poor strategy doomed Siri and her ilk. See this new Times report. Now the enthusiasm once showered on these early attempts to make Artificial Intelligence useful is lavished on far more powerful A.I. tools, like chatbots.

What about it, Apple? Could you get it right this time?

One ‘Bad Apple’ Can Spoil a Metaphor

Ups and Downs of the Rule Against Perpetuities

 The Rule Against Perpetuities was born in Tudor England, as this Smithsonian item reminds us. Charitable funds were exempted by Queen Elizabeth I. In this country the Rule, as applied to family transfers, has now weakened or vanished in a number of states. Dynasty trusts turn out to be an easy sell. 

Should the Rule again apply to great family wealth? What about charitable foundations? 

Brooke Astor, known for her philanthropy, disapproved of perpetual funds. Her favorite Thornton Wilder quote: "Money is like manure. It should be spread around."