The Incredible Shrinking Stock Market

In 1996, writes Jason Thomas of the Carlyle Group in his WSJ($) op-ed, there were 7,322 domestic companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. Today there are only 3,671. The Wilshire 5000 is down to around 3,500 companies.

Easy access to venture, growth and private-equity capital means that companies no longer need to pursue an initial public offering to fund growth or access liquidity. Increases in regulations, shareholder lawsuits and activist demands have also diminished the appeal of a public listing. Over the past two decades, the number of annual IPOs has fallen sharply, to 128 in 2016 from 845 in 1996.

Successful new companies prefer to stay private to avoid hassle. Thanks to eased rules, they can acquire plenty of capital and hundreds of direct or indirect shareholders without going public.

The trend away from IPOs has benefited private market players at the expense of everyday investors. With companies like Uber, Airbnb and other successful startups delaying their IPOs for so long, there is little prospect for public returns on a scale similar to those enjoyed by Amazon’s early stockholders.

Yesterday’s growth stocks have migrated to private portfolios. As a result, stock pickers have slimmer pickings. Investors in index funds face leaner returns. "Today," Thomas asserts, "it isn’t possible to assemble a portfolio with the same makeup as the stock market of 1997 without exposure to private markets."

Another drawback, not mentioned by Thomas: Investing in nonpublic stocks through private equity partnerships or hedge funds is way more expensive than buying an index fund. Private investors face high fees and must hand over a share of the profits.

The world of everyday investing is in transition. Over the next decade or two the changes are likely to be drastic. Now if we just had 20-20 foresight….

Related post: The Stock Market is Disappearing Before Our Eyes.