Wednesday, August 18, 2021

Contrary indicator?

 The New York Times has a nice, well-illustrated analysis of the inflation picture at the moment.

However, I don't trust their conclusion that we don't need to worry about inflation, that it really is transitory.  The general public perceives inflation by what they see at the gas pump and at the grocery store.  Inflationary expectations are as significant as inflation itself.  The fact that the prices of window coverings and men's suits are going down doesn't cut much ice.  Gas prices can only go higher given the new restrictions on building pipelines and fracking.  Note also that President Biden's plea to OPEC to boost production was rebuffed.

What's more, the New York Times has been practicing "agenda journalism" for the past few years, which makes me skeptical of any of their pronouncements.  "No long-term inflation to see here" sounds an awful lot like "Kabul can survive for 90 days" to my ears.  Wishful thinking.

Having said all that, I do find their data presentation and explanations to be interesting, potentially helpful.


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