Friday, December 19, 2008

Oh, so now taxes do influence taxpayer behavior?

Whenever changes to the tax code are "scored" for their impact on federal revenue, estimates are based upon static economic models. Although everyone concedes that tax changes influence taxpayer behavior, no one can agree on how to estimate that change. Tax cuts boost the economy and, ultimately, tax revenue, a vindication of the Reagan vision that those who promote more government spending are unwilling to acknowledge. So, for example, cuts to the capital gains tax rate are always scored as losing revenue, when in fact they have always generated revenue increases as more investors become willing to unlock their gains.

Now one of the long-time opponents of lower taxes and dynamic tax scoring, the New York Times, is asking Did ’97 Tax Break Worsen Housing Bubble? It turns out that when you lower taxes on something, you get more of it, and when you raise taxes on something you get less of it. I wonder who said that first?

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