Friday, February 13, 2009

Friday the 13th, Indeed!

One glance at the front page of the print edition of The New York Times, and it's already a bad day. The lead article reports that Judd Greg, my senator, has withdrawn as the President's second-choice nominee for Secretary of Commerce. Senator Gregg and other Republicans are alarmed by the White House's expressed desire to take control of the 2010 census from the Commerce Department. That alarm is probably doubled because President Obama hails from Chicago, where stories abound of dead men voting. (If guys can vote, the census should count them, right?)

Right next to that article is this one: Large Banks On the Edge.
Some of the nation’s large banks, according to economists and other finance experts, are like dead men walking.
The article highlights calculations by Nouriel Roubini, the current "Doctor Doom."
Mr. Roubini estimates that total losses on loans by American financial firms and the fall in the market value of the assets they hold will reach $3.6 trillion, up from his previous estimate of $2 trillion.

Of the total, he calculates that American banks face half that risk, or $1.8 trillion, with the rest borne by other financial institutions in the United States and abroad.
Not feeling depressed enough? Read why some Japanese think we're repeating their mistakes, which resulted in zombie banks and a "lost decade."

At this point you might as well ruin the day for good. Read or reread the interview with Ray Dalio in this week's Barron's. Mr. Dalio was foresighted enough to achieve positive investment returns last year, so his warnings of a long, slow "D-process" carry weight.

O.K. That takes care of Friday the 13th. Head for the weekend knowing that anything you read or hear is bound to be cheerier.

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