NFL Coaches “Too Conservative.” Investors, Too?

Remember the Steelers' opening drive? It ended with Roethlisberger diving into the end zone for an apparent touchdown. When video replay showed Roethlisberger's knee had hit the ground too soon, the Steelers were left with fourth down and one on the one. And the coach sent in the field-goal unit.

"By Zeus," I thought, "that's wrong!"

As described in The New York Times, Zeus is a computer program that analyzes coaching decisions, seeking to determine which ones create the highest Game Winning Chances, or GWCs. Zeus says coaches tend to be too conservative for the team's good in certain situations, such as fourth and one:

Coaches routinely take the points by virtue of a field goal when a long drive stalls on fourth-and-short in the opponent’s red zone. This misguided decision is responsible for a disproportionate amount of squandered G.W.C. each season.

With one minute to go last evening, the Steelers were trailing by three. The early decision to go for three instead of trying for seven looked disastrous. If Holmes hadn't grabbed a pass in the end zone with 42 seconds to play….

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Hammered by financial meltdowns and a Great Recession, will investors play it even more conservatively than NFL coaches in the decade to come? Will they go for the almost sure 3 points (bonds) instead of trying for 7 (stocks)?

If so, will they still manage to win financial independence before falling into retirement?