Thursday, February 12, 2009

Outrageous

The current economic collapse was started by the collapse of the bubble in residential real estate, a collapse that was unavoidable. The falling home prices are starting to feed on themselves, and the market is not able to find a bottom. Odds are now that prices will overshoot the bottom, which means we have a lot more economic pain in store.

There was exactly one item in the "stimulus bill" that had any chance of braking those price declines, the $15,000 credit for buying a home. It could have pulled people back in the home buying market. Reportedly realtors around the country were e-mailing their prospects about it last week.

We'll never know if the credit would have worked. The Democrats cut the provision in Conference, even though it had widespread Democratic support in the Senate (I think it passed 70 - 30). They cut it, reportedly, to deny the Republicans credit for the idea, given that almost no Republicans supported the bill as a whole.

As I mentioned earlier, this is an utterly unserious approach to economic recovery. One begins to think that the Democrats believe if they prolong the pain for years, they can extend their political dominance for decades, as FDR did.

For an eye-opening comparison of Presidential responses to economic crisis, see Reagonomics versus Obamanomics in The Wall Street Journal.

1 comment:

JLM said...

The stimulus bill is a mess for sure. But government spending is such a significant part of GDP (unlike the 19380s) that this increase should make things look statistically better for a while.

The final bill does seem to contain a one-year $8,000 tax credit (not a loan) for first-time home-buyers. Renters who previously owned a home will just have to wait for prices to drop another $15,000.