The Next Stock Market Boom

Maybe it's a bit closer than we thought. Your humble, obedient blogger has been reading (actually, listening to) The Snowball, Alice Schroeder's biography of Warren Buffet.

Schroeder introduces Warren as he and his family travel to Sun Valley in 1999 for the annual retreat hosted by Herbert Allen. Warren delivers the closing presentation. Speaking at the height of the dot.com-tech bubble, he warns the gathering of tycoons and masters of the universe that stocks are dangerously overvalued. To illustrate what could happen, he points out that the Dow was at about 874 at one point in September, 1964 and seventeen years later, in 1981,was again around 874. Was everybody ready for another 17 years of stocks going nowhere?

At the time, that thought was a real downer. Now, not so bad. Seventeen years from 1999 is 2016. Some followers of saros cycles believe the next stock market boom won't start until 2018. If Warren was right, the good times may start to roll sooner!