Monday, March 30, 2009

We should have seen it coming . . .

. . . suggests Robert Shiller, in a remembrance of a presentation delivered by Lawrence Summers back in 1989. Summers rather presciently outlined the market psychology that would lead to a bubble, then a crash. He didn't get the date right—he posited 1991—but much of the rest is impressive.

Shiller says we have to take this psychology into account when creating solutions, but he doesn't say what that means. Based upon today's stock market, I'm guessing that having the President decide who will head a car company is not the answer.

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